How to Forecast Campaign Reach and Impressions

Launching a campaign without knowing what to expect is a gamble. The Forecast tool lets you simulate your campaign setup against live marketplace data — before you spend a single euro. See how many impressions are available, what win rate you can expect at your CPM, and whether your budget aligns with available inventory.

Access: Navigate to Media Planner > Forecast in the ad:personam platform.

What Forecast Tells You

After you configure your campaign parameters and submit, ad:personam queries the Adform DSP marketplace in real time and returns:

Two interactive charts visualise how impressions and win rate scale as CPM increases, helping you find the optimal bid point.

A marketplace breakdown table shows which inventory sources contribute to your forecast, with cookies and requests per source.

Settings Excluded from Forecast

The forecast wizard covers the most impactful campaign parameters, but some settings that exist in the full line item setup are not available in the standalone forecast:

These settings can still be configured when you create a real line item. The forecast gives you a reliable estimate of reach and availability based on the core targeting parameters.

Access and Availability

Without a Subscription (Planning Mode)

The forecast tool is available to all users, including those without an active subscription. In planning mode:

• You can run unlimited forecasts using the ad:personam preset currency and timezone.
• All core forecast parameters are available — campaign type, geo targeting, inventory sources, audience segments, pricing, and more.
• Advertiser-specific objects such as targeting lists and tracking pixels are not available, as they require an advertiser account.

This makes the forecast ideal for evaluating the ad:personam marketplace before committing to a plan.

With a Subscription

Subscribed users get everything above, plus:

• The forecast tool is also available during the line item creation flow (inside Campaign Setup). This lets you validate your real campaign configuration against the marketplace before saving and activating.
• Access to advertiser-specific objects (targeting lists, pixels) within the campaign setup forecast.

Step-by-Step: Run a Forecast

The forecast wizard walks you through the same configuration steps as a real campaign — but without creating anything. Every setting is saved in your browser so you can go back and adjust.

1. Select Campaign Type

Choose your line item type — Display, Video, CTV, Audio, or In-App — and configure environments and channels. This determines which inventory pools the forecast queries.

2. Configure Insertion Order

Set your campaign name, flight dates (start and end), and budget. The budget is used to calculate booked impressions on the results page.

3. Set Geo Targeting

Select target countries, regions, or cities. Geographic targeting narrows the available inventory to your specified markets.

4. Choose Inventory Sources

Select your supply type and pick from the available inventory sources (SSPs and exchanges). You can also configure Private Marketplace (PMP) deals if you have negotiated direct inventory agreements.

5. Configure Brand Safety

Enable or disable brand safety filters. When enabled, ad:personam applies domain and content category blocklists to protect your brand.

6. Add Audience Targeting (Optional)

Select audience segments from the data marketplace to refine who sees your ads. Each segment has an associated data CPM — this cost is automatically factored into your forecast.

If you select segments from multiple providers or categories, the forecast accounts for the combined data cost using AND/OR logic:

• Segments within the same provider/category group are OR'd (only the highest CPM applies)
• Segments across different groups are AND'd (CPMs are summed)

7. Adjust Settings

Configure frequency capping rules, above-the-fold placement preferences, and video-specific settings if applicable.

8. Set Pricing

Choose your pricing model (CPM is the default) and set your maximum bid. This is the CPM that the forecast will simulate against the marketplace.

Important: The forecast treats your Max CPM (or the derived Effective CPM) as a fixed bid regardless of the optimisation type you select. In a live campaign with dynamic CPM pricing, the bidding algorithm adjusts bids up or down based on predicted opportunity and optimisation goals — this behaviour is not reflected in the forecast. Results therefore represent a scenario where every bid is submitted at the Max CPM value, which may differ from actual delivery performance.

9. Review and Submit

The review page summarises every setting in one view. Click Run Forecast to submit. Both a line item forecast and a marketplace forecast run in parallel, and results typically appear within a few seconds.

Reading the Results

Stat Cards

The results page displays key metrics in a card grid:

• Max CPM shows your full bid (effective CPM + audience CPM). This is what you would actually pay per thousand impressions.
• Effective CPM is what the marketplace sees after audience data costs are subtracted. If this drops to zero, a warning appears — your audience costs exceed your bid.
• Win Rate tells you what share of matching auctions you would win. A low win rate suggests you should increase your CPM.
• Available Impressions shows total inventory matching your targeting. Compare this to Booked Impressions (derived from your budget) to check whether you are over- or under-spending relative to supply.

Charts

• CPM vs Impressions — an area chart showing how available impressions grow as you increase your CPM bid, up to a capped range.
• Win Rate vs CPM — shows how the win rate scales with higher CPMs, helping you identify the point of diminishing returns.

Marketplace Breakdown

A table listing each inventory source with its contributed cookies and requests, so you can see which SSPs and exchanges provide the most supply for your setup.

Warnings and Alerts

The forecast flags potential issues automatically:

• Red alert — Your effective CPM is zero or negative because audience data costs exceed your bid. Increase your Max CPM or remove expensive audience segments.
• Amber alert — Your booked impressions exceed the available supply. You may not be able to fully deliver your budget. Consider broadening your targeting or extending the flight dates.

Tips for Better Forecasts

• Start broad, then narrow: Run an initial forecast with minimal targeting to understand baseline availability, then layer on geo, audience, and brand safety to see how each filter reduces supply.
• Compare CPM levels: Use the charts to find the CPM sweet spot where win rate is high enough without overpaying.
• Check audience costs first: If you are using premium data segments, verify the audience CPM before setting your bid. Your effective CPM must remain above zero.
• Use alongside Domain Query: Cross-reference your inventory sources with the Domain Query tool to validate that key domains support your chosen channel and creative formats.
• No commitment required: Forecasts do not create campaigns or spend budget. Run as many as you need to refine your strategy.